How can investors tell whether companies are passing tariffs on to consumers?

• List-price increases: identical products get more expensive.
• Fewer or shallower promotions: the average price paid rises even if list prices do not.
• Pack-size cuts: the shelf price holds but the price per unit rises.

1. 1Define exposed products (for example imported categories or brands sourcing from affected countries) and a comparison group that is not exposed.
2. 2Track matched-SKU price changes weekly for both groups from before the tariff announcement.
3. 3Overlay markdown breadth and depth to catch promotional pull-back.
4. 4Check price per unit where pack sizes can change.
5. 5Compare the timing of price moves with announcement and effective dates, and across retailers to see who moves first.

If exposed products rise faster than the comparison group after the effective date, the difference is an estimate of pass-through at the shelf. If prices hold while costs rise, the company is absorbing the tariff in its gross margin, which matters for earnings even when revenue looks stable.

• Price pass-through: The share of a cost increase, such as a tariff or input-cost rise, that a company passes on to customers through higher prices.
• Matched-SKU inflation: The price change of identical products observed in both periods, which isolates true price moves from changes in product mix.
• Markdown breadth: The share of a brand's or retailer's live products that are selling below their full price at a point in time.
• Shrinkflation: A price increase delivered by reducing pack size while keeping the shelf price the same or similar.

How each measure is built: methodology.