How do you measure whether retailers are more promotional this holiday season than last year?
Holiday promotions are only comparable when the same events are lined up year on year: Black Friday, Cyber Monday, Prime Day and end-of-season sales move between calendar weeks. Align the events, then compare markdown breadth, discount depth and full-price availability for the same retailers and categories. A season that needs deeper, broader discounts to clear stock points to margin pressure.
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Align the calendar first
Thanksgiving falls on a different date each year, so Black Friday and Cyber Monday shift by up to a week, and marketplace events such as Prime Day move between months. Comparing calendar weeks directly will show false increases and decreases. Align on the event, not the date.
What to compare
- Markdown breadth: how much of the range is discounted during the event window.
- Discount depth: how large the discounts are on promoted products.
- Promotion start date: retailers starting earlier than last year is itself a signal.
- Full-price availability after the event: what did not sell through at full price.
A practical workflow
- 1Choose the retailers and categories that matter for the company or theme.
- 2Line up event windows for this year and the prior two years.
- 3Compare breadth, depth and duration inside each window.
- 4Check the weeks after the event for continued clearance.
Metrics used
- Promotional intensity: How heavily a brand, retailer or category relies on discounts, combining how often products are promoted and how deep the discounts are.
- Markdown breadth: The share of a brand's or retailer's live products that are selling below their full price at a point in time.
- Discount depth: The average percentage reduction from full price across products that are on sale.
- Full-price availability: The share of a brand's products that are both in stock and selling at full price, a proxy for clean, healthy demand.
How each measure is built: methodology.
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